Trade-off Analytics

List of Contributors xix About the Authors xxi Foreword xxxi Preface xxxiii Acknowledgments xli About the Companion Website xlv 1 Introduction to Trade-off Analysis 1 Gregory S. Parnell Matthew Cilli Azad M. Madni and Garry Roedler 1.1 Introduction 2 1.2 Trade-off Analyses Throughout the Life Cycle 3 1.3 Trade-off Analysis to Identify System Value 3 1.4 Trade-off Analysis to Identify System Uncertainties and Risks 6 1.5 Trade-off Analyses can Integrate Value and Risk Analysis 6 1.6 Trade-off Analysis in the Systems Engineering Decision Management Process 8 1.7 Trade-off Analysis Mistakes of Omission and Commission 9 1.8 Overview of the Book 20 1.9 Key Terms 24 1.10 Exercises 25 References 26 2 A Conceptual Framework and Mathematical Foundation for Trade-Off Analysis 29 Gregory S. Parnell Azad M. Madni and Robert F. Bordley 2.1 Introduction 29 2.2 Trade-Off Analysis Terms 30 2.3 Influence Diagram of the Tradespace 31 2.4 Tradespace Exploration 46 2.5 Summary 46 2.6 Key Words 47 2.7 Exercises 48 References 48 3 Quantifying Uncertainty 51 Robert F. Bordley 3.1 Sources of Uncertainty in Systems Engineering 51 3.2 The Rules of Probability and Human Intuition 52 3.3 Probability Distributions 56 3.4 Estimating Probabilities 66 3.5 Modeling Using Probability 72 3.6 Summary 81 3.7 Key Terms 81 3.8 Exercises 83 References 86 4 ANALYZING RESOURCES 91 Edward A. Pohl Simon R. Goerger and Kirk Michealson 4.1 Introduction 91 4.2 Resources 92 4.3 Cost Analysis 99 4.4 Affordability Analysis 135 4.5 Key Terms 147 4.6 Excercises 149 References 152 5 Understanding Decision Management 155 Matthew Cilli and Gregory S. Parnell 5.1 Introduction 155 5.2 Decision Process Context 156 5.3 Decision Process Activities 157 5.4 Summary 199 5.5 Key Terms 199 5.6 Exercises 200 References 201 6 Identifying Opportunities 203 Donna H. Rhodes and Simon R. Goerger 6.1 Introduction 203 6.2 Knowledge 205 6.3 Decision Traps 207 6.4 Techniques 210 6.5 Tools 219 6.6 Illustrative Examples 223 6.7 Key Terms 228 6.8 Exercises 230 References 230 7 Identifying Objectives and Value Measures 233 Gregory S. Parnell and William D. Miller 7.1 Introduction 233 7.2 Value-Focused Thinking 234 7.3 Shareholder and Stakeholder Value 236 7.4 Challenges in Identifying Objectives 238 7.5 Identifying the Decision Objectives 239 7.6 The Financial or Cost Objective 241 7.7 Developing Value Measures 243 7.8 Structuring Multiple Objectives 243 7.9 Illustrative Examples 248 7.10 Summary 250 7.11 Key Terms 252 7.12 Exercises 253 References 255 8 DEVELOPING AND EVALUATING ALTERNATIVES 257 C. Robert Kenley Clifford Whitcomb and Gregory S. Parnell 8.1 Introduction 257 8.2 Overview of Decision-making Creativity and Teams 258 8.3 Alternative Development Techniques 263 8.4 Assessment of Alternative Development Techniques 275 8.5 Alternative Evaluation Techniques 276 8.6 Assessment of Alternative Evaluation Techniques 290 8.7 Key Terms 290 8.8 Exercises 290 References 293 9 An Integrated Model for Trade-Off Analysis 297 Alexander D. MacCalman Gregory S. Parnell and Sam Savage 9.1 Introduction 297 9.2 Conceptual Design Example 298 9.3 Integrated Approach Influence Diagram 300 9.4 Other Types of Trade-Off Analysis 322 9.5 Simulation Tools 322 9.6 Summary 329 9.7 Key Terms 330 9.8 Exercises 331 References 335 10 EXPLORING CONCEPT TRADE-OFFS 337 Azad M. Madni and Adam M. Ross 10.1 Introduction 337 10.2 Defining the Concept Space and System Concept of Operations 345 10.3 Exploring the Concept Space 346 10.4 Trade-off Analysis Frameworks 348 10.5 Tradespace and System Design Life Cycle 349 10.6 From Point Trade-offs to Tradespace Exploration 351 10.7 Value-based Multiattribute Tradespace Analysis 351 10.8 Illustrative Example 359 10.9 Conclusions 369 10.10 Key Terms 371 10.11 Exercises 372 References 372 11 Architecture Evaluation Framework 377 James N. Martin 11.1 Introduction 377 11.2 Key Considerations in Evaluating Architectures 385 11.3 Architecture Evaluation Elements 389 11.4 Steps in an Architecture Evaluation Process 396 11.5 Example Evaluation Taxonomy 398 11.6 Summary 400 11.7 Key Terms 400 11.8 Exercises 402 References 402 12 Exploring the Design Space 405 Clifford Whitcomb and Paul Beery 12.1 Introduction 405 12.2 Example 1: Liftboat 406 12.3 Example 2: Cruise Ship Design 411 12.4 Example 3: NATO Naval Surface Combatant Ship 417 12.5 Key Terms 431 12.6 Exercises 433 References 435 13 SUSTAINMENT RELATED MODELS AND TRADE STUDIES 437 John E. MacCarthy and Andres Vargas 13.1 Introduction 437 13.2 Availability Modeling and Trade Studies 439 13.3 Sustainment Life Cycle Cost Modeling and Trade Studies14 454 13.4 Optimization in Availability Trade Studies 464 13.5 Monte Carlo Modeling 471 13.6 Chapter Summary 475 13.7 Key Terms 476 13.8 Exercises 478 References 482 14 Performing Programmatic Trade-Off Analyses 483 Gina Guillaume-Joseph and John E. MacCarthy 14.1 Introduction 483 14.2 System Acceptance Decisions and Trade Studies 485 14.3 Product Cancelation Decision Trade Study 512 14.4 Product Retirement Decision Trade Study 538 14.5 Key Terms 562 14.6 Exercises 564 References 566 15 SUMMARY AND FUTURE TRENDS 571 Gregory S. Parnell and Simon R. Goerger 15.1 Introduction 571 15.2 Major Trade-Off Analysis Themes 572 15.3 Future of Trade-Off Analysis 576 15.4 Summary 581 References 581 Index 583

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