Probabilistic Power System Expansion Planning with Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Storage Systems

Probabilistic Power System Expansion Planning with Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Storage Systems

Choi, Jaeseok; Lee, Kwang Y.

John Wiley & Sons Inc

11/2021

512

Dura

Inglês

9781119684138

15 a 20 dias

858

Descrição não disponível.
Author Biographies xvii

Preface xix

Acknowledgments xxv

Part I Generation Expansion Planning 1

1 Introduction 3

1.1 Electricity Outlook 3

1.2 Renewables 8

1.3 Power System Planning 12

2 Background on Generation Expansion Planning 15

2.1 Methodology and Issues 15

2.2 Formulation of the Least-Cost Generation Expansion Planning Problem 18

3 Cost Assessment and Methodologies in Generation Expansion Planning 21

3.1 Basic Cost Concepts 21

3.1.1 Annual Effective Discount Rate 22

3.1.2 Present Value 23

3.1.3 Relationship Between Salvage Value and Depreciation Cost 24

3.2 Methodologies 26

3.2.1 Dynamic Programming 26

3.2.2 Linear Programming 27

3.2.2.1 Investment Cost (Capital Cost) 27

3.2.2.2 Operating Cost 27

3.2.2.3 LP Formula 28

3.2.3 Integer Programming 28

3.2.4 Multi-objective Linear Programming 28

3.2.5 Genetic Algorithm 29

3.2.6 Game Theory 30

3.2.7 Reliability Worth 32

3.2.8 Maximum Principle 32

3.3 Conventional Approach for Load Modeling 34

3.3.1 Load Duration Curve 34

4 Load Model and Generation Expansion Planning 39

4.1 Introduction 39

4.2 Analytical Approach for Long-Term Generation Expansion Planning 40

4.2.1 Representation of Random Load Fluctuations 41

4.2.2 Available Generation Capacities 43

4.2.3 Expected Plant Outputs 44

4.2.4 Expected Annual Energy 47

4.2.5 Reliability Measures 47

4.2.5.1 Expected Annual Unserved Energy 47

4.2.5.2 Annual Loss-of-Load Probability 47

4.2.6 Expected Annual Cost 48

4.2.7 Expected Marginal Values 49

4.3 Optimal Utilization of Hydro Resources 50

4.3.1 Introduction 50

4.3.2 Conventional Peak-Shaving Operation and its Problems 51

4.3.3 Peak-Shaving Operation Based on Analytical Production Costing Model 52

4.3.3.1 Basic Concept 52

4.3.3.2 Peak-Shaving Operation Problem 53

4.3.4 Optimization Procedure for Peak-Shaving Operation 53

4.4 Long-Range Generation Expansion Planning 56

4.4.1 Statement of Long-Range Generation Expansion Planning Problem 56

4.4.1.1 Master Problem and Basic Subproblems 57

4.4.1.2 Hydro Subproblem 58

4.4.2 Optimization Procedures 59

4.5 Case Studies 60

4.5.1 Test for Accuracy of Formulas 60

4.5.2 Test for Solution Convergence and Computing Efficiency 62

4.6 Conclusion 65

5 Probabilistic Production Simulation Model 67

5.1 Introduction 67

5.2 Effective Load Distribution Curve 67

5.3 Case Studies 71

5.3.1 Case Study I: Sample System I With One 30MW Generator Only 71

5.3.2 Case Study II: Sample System II With One 10MW Generator Only 75

5.3.3 Case Study III: Sample System III With Two Generators - 30 and 10MW 78

5.4 Probabilistic Production Simulation Algorithm 82

5.4.1 Hartley Transform 82

5.5 Supply Reserve Rate 90

6 Decision Maker's Satisfaction Using Fuzzy Set Theory 95

6.1 Introduction 95

6.2 Fuzzy Dynamic Programming 96

6.3 Best Generation Mix 97

6.3.1 Problem Statement 97

6.3.2 Objective Functions 97

6.3.3 Constraints 99

6.3.4 Membership Functions 100

6.3.5 The Proposed Fuzzy Dynamic Programming-Based Solution Procedure 101

6.4 Case Study 102

6.4.1 Results and Discussion 104

6.5 Conclusion 108

7 Best Generation Mix Considering Air Pollution Constraints 111

7.1 Introduction 111

7.2 Concept of Flexible Planning 111

7.3 LP Formulation of the Best Generation Mix 112

7.3.1 Problem Statement 112

7.3.2 Objective Functions 113

7.4 Fuzzy LP Formulation of Flexible Generation Mix 116

7.4.1 The Optimal Decision Theory by Fuzzy Set Theory 116

7.4.2 The Function of Fuzzy Linear Programming 117

7.5 Case Studies 118

7.5.1 Results by Non-Fuzzy Model 120

7.5.2 Results by Fuzzy Model 122

7.6 Conclusion 124

8 Generation System Expansion Planning with Renewable Energy 127

8.1 Introduction 127

8.2 LP Formulation of the Best Generation Mix 128

8.2.1 Problem Statement 128

8.2.2 Objective Function and Constraints 129

8.3 Fuzzy LP Formulation of Flexible Generation Mix 132

8.3.1 The Optimal Decision Theory by Fuzzy Set Theory 132

8.3.2 The Function of Fuzzy Linear Programming 133

8.4 Case Studies 134

8.4.1 Test Results 134

8.4.2 Sensitivity Analysis 134

8.4.2.1 Capacity Factor of WTG and SCG 134

8.5 Conclusion 140

9 Reliability Evaluation for Power System Planning with Wind Generators and Multi-Energy Storage Systems 141

9.1 Introduction 141

9.2 Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation by Monte Carlo Simulation 143

9.2.1 Probabilistic Operation Model of Generator 1 143

9.2.2 Probabilistic Operation Model of Generator 2 144

9.3 Probabilistic Output Prediction Model of WTG 145

9.4 Multi-Energy Storage System Operational Model 147

9.4.1 Constraints of ESS control (EUi,k) 149

9.5 Multi-ESS Operation Rule 150

9.5.1 Discharging Mode 150

9.5.2 Charging Mode 151

9.6 Reliability Evaluation with Energy Storage System 151

9.7 Case Studies 152

9.7.1 Power System of Jeju Island 152

9.7.2 Reliability Evaluation of Single-ESS 156

9.7.3 Reliability Evaluation of Multi-ESS 159

9.7.4 Comparison of System A and System B 162

9.8 Conclusion 163

9.A Appendices 164

9.A.1 Single-ESS Model 164

9.A.2 Multi-ESS Model 167

9.A.3 Operation of Multi-ESS Models 168

Method 1: Energy Rate Dispatch Method (ERDM) 173

Method 2: Maximum First Priority Method (MFPM) 173

9.A.4 A Comparative Analysis of Single-ESS and Multi-ESS Models 175

10 Genetic Algorithm for Generation Expansion Planning and Reactive Power Planning 177

10.1 Introduction 177

10.2 Generation Expansion Planning 178

10.3 The Least-Cost GEP Problem 179

10.4 Simple Genetic Algorithm 180

10.4.1 String Representation 181

10.4.2 Genetic Operations 181

10.5 Improved GA for the Least-Cost GEP 182

10.5.1 String Structure 182

10.5.2 Fitness Function 182

10.5.3 Creation of an Artificial Initial Population 183

10.5.4 Stochastic Crossover, Elitism, and Mutation 185

10.6 Case Studies 186

10.6.1 Test Systems' Description 186

10.6.2 Parameters for GEP and IGA 187

10.6.3 Numerical Results 189

10.6.4 Summary 192

10.7 Reactive Power Planning 192

10.8 Decomposition of Reactive Power Planning Problem 194

10.8.1 Investment-Operation Problem 194

10.8.2 Benders Decomposition Formulation 195

10.9 Solution Algorithm for VAR Planning 196

10.10 Simulation Results 198

10.10.1 The 6-bus System 198

10.10.2 IEEE 30-bus System 199

10.10.3 Summary 200

10.11 Conclusion 201

References 203

Part II Transmission System Expansion Planning 213

11 Transmission Expansion Planning Problem 215

11.1 Introduction 215

11.2 Long-Term Transmission Expansion Planning 216

11.3 Yearly Transmission Expansion Planning 218

11.3.1 Power Flow Model 218

11.3.2 Optimal Operation Cost Model 220

11.3.3 Probability of Line Failures 222

11.3.4 Expected Operation Cost 223

11.3.5 Annual Expected Operation Cost 224

11.4 Long-Term Transmission Planning Problem 224

11.4.1 Long-Term Transmission Planning Model 225

11.4.2 Solution Technique for the Planning Problem 226

11.5 Case Study 227

11.6 Conclusion 232

12 Models and Methodologies 235

12.1 Introduction 235

12.2 Transmission System Expansion Planning Problem 235

12.3 Cost Evaluation for TEP Considering Electricity Market 236

12.4 Model Development History for TEP Problem 237

12.5 General DC Power Flow-Based Formulation of TEP Problem 238

12.5.1 Linear Programming 239

12.5.2 Dynamic Programming 240

12.5.3 Integer Programming (IP) 242

12.5.4 Genetic Algorithm by Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) 245

12.6 Branch and Bound Algorithm 246

12.6.1 Branch and Bound Algorithm and Flow Chart 246

12.6.2 Sample System Study by Branch and Bound 248

13 Probabilistic Production Cost Simulation for TEP 257

13.1 Introduction 257

13.2 Modeling of Extended Effective Load for Composite Power System 259

13.3 Probability Distribution Function of the Synthesized Fictitious Equivalent Generator 263

13.4 Reliability Evaluation and Probabilistic Production Cost Simulation at Load Points 265

13.5 Case Studies 266

13.5.1 Numerical Calculation of a Simple Example 266

13.5.2 Case Study: Modified Roy Billinton Test System 274

13.6 Conclusion 288

14 Reliability Constraints 291

14.1 Deterministic Reliability Constraint Using Contingency Constraints 291

14.1.1 Introduction 291

14.1.2 Transmission Expansion Planning Problem 292

14.1.3 Maximum Flow Under Contingency Analysis for Security Constraint 297

14.1.4 Alternative Types of Contingency Criteria 298

14.1.5 Solution Algorithm 299

14.1.6 Case Studies 300

14.1.7 Conclusion 316

Appendix 319

14.2 Deterministic Reliability Constraints 322

14.2.1 Introduction 322

14.2.2 Transmission System Expansion Planning Problem 323

14.2.3 Maximum Flow Under Contingency Analysis for Security Constraint 325

14.2.4 Solution Algorithm 325

14.2.5 Case Studies 326

14.2.6 Conclusion 331

14.3 Probabilistic Reliability Constraints 333

14.3.1 Introduction 333

14.3.2 Transmission System Expansion Planning Problem 338

14.3.3 Composite Power System Reliability Evaluation 340

14.3.4 Solution Algorithm 343

14.3.5 Case Study 344

14.3.6 Conclusion 357

14.4 Outage Cost Constraints 357

14.4.1 Introduction 357

14.4.2 The Objective Function 358

14.4.3 Constraints 359

14.4.4 Outage Cost Assessment of Transmission System 360

14.4.5 Reliability Evaluation of Transmission System 363

14.4.6 Outage Cost Assessment 363

14.4.7 Solution Algorithm 364

14.4.8 Case Study 365

14.4.9 Conclusion 369

14.5 Deterministic-Probabilistic (D-P) Criteria 373

15 Fuzzy Decision Making for TEP 375

15.1 Introduction 375

15.2 Fuzzy Transmission Expansion Planning Problem 377

15.3 Equivalent Crisp Integer Programming and Branch and Bound Method 379

15.4 Membership Functions 380

15.5 Solution Algorithm 381

15.6 Testing 382

15.6.1 Discussion of Results 384

15.6.2 Solution Sensitivity to Reliability Criterion 387

15.6.3 Sensitivity to Budget for Construction Cost 389

15.7 Case Study 390

15.8 Conclusion 396

15.A Appendix 396

15.A.1 Network Modeling of Power System 396

15.A.2 Definition 397

15.A.3 Fuzzy Integer Programming (FIP) 398

16 Optimal Reliability Criteria for TEP 401

16.1 Introduction 401

16.2 Probabilistic Optimal Reliability Criterion 401

16.2.1 Introduction 401

16.2.2 Optimal Reliability Criterion Determination 403

16.2.3 Optimal Composite Power System Expansion Planning 403

16.2.3.1 The Objective Function 403

16.2.3.2 Constraints 405

16.2.4 Composite Power System Reliability Evaluation and Outage Cost Assessment 406

16.2.4.1 Reliability Evaluation at HLI 406

16.2.4.2 Reliability Evaluation at HLII (Composite Power System) 407

16.2.4.3 Flow Chart of the Proposed Methodology for Optimal Reliability Criterion Determination in Transmission System Expansion Planning 409

16.2.5 Case Study 410

16.2.6 Conclusion 416

16.3 Deterministic Reliability Criterion for Composite Power System Expansion Planning 416

16.3.1 Introduction 416

16.3.2 Optimal Reliability Criterion Determination 419

16.3.3 Optimal Composite Power System Expansion Planning 419

16.3.3.1 Composite Power System Expansion Planning Formulation in CmExpP.For 419

16.3.3.2 Flow Chart 421

16.3.4 Composite Power System Reliability Evaluation 421

16.3.4.1 Reliability Indices at Load Points 422

16.3.4.2 Reliability Indices of the Bulk System 423

16.3.5 DMR Evaluation using Maximum Flow Method 424

16.3.6 Flow Chart of Optimal Reliability Criterion Determination 424

16.3.7 Case Study 425

16.3.7.1 Basic Input Data 425

16.3.7.2 Results of Construction Costs of Cases 428

16.3.7.3 Reliability Evaluation 428

16.3.8 Conclusion 431

17 Probabilistic Reliability-Based Expansion Planning with Wind Turbine Generators 433

17.1 Introduction 433

17.2 The Multistate Operation Model of WTG 434

17.2.1 WTG Power Output Model 434

17.2.2 Wind Speed Model 435

17.2.3 The Multistate Model of WTG using Normal ProbabilityDistribution Function 435

17.3 Reliability Evaluation of a Composite Power System with WTG 438

17.3.1 Reliability Indices at Load Buses 440

17.3.2 System Reliability Indices 440

17.4 Case Study 441

17.5 Conclusion 448

17.A Appendix 448

18 Probabilistic Reliability-Based HVDC Expansion Planning with Wind Turbine Generators 449

18.1 The Status of HVDC 449

18.2 HVDC Technology for Energy Efficiency and Grid Reliability 451

18.3 HVDC Impacts on Transmission System Reliabili ty 455

18.4 Case Study 455

References 465

Index 469
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Probabilistic power expansion; probabilistic expansion planning; renewable energy expansion planning; energy storage system expansion planning; energy storage expansion planning; power system planning; generation expansion planning; gep